Yesterday was our 400th blog entry. A lot has chanegd in Dubai in that time.
There seems to have been overraction to bad news ealrier in the year when mcuh to outsider’s surprise Dubai got through the recession and debt probels with no more fuss than any other mdoern economy. Now with little improvement changed in much of the world (look at Ireland and Greece and the USA debt, natutral disasters on all continents, stagnation in Japan etc ) suddenly the regional markets are upbeat:
Dubai ruler says ‘We are back’ after debt accord‘
Oil is predicted to rise to $85 in 2011
Aramex stock soars on foreign takeover hopes
Colony Capital plans further GCC expansion
Iraq’s proven oil reserves rise to 143 bln barrels
International Herald Tribune : ‘Dubai rises from the ashes of debt crisis’,…”getting back to basics.”
The new sovereign bond issue was four times oversubscribed ……and of course the really good news: traffic fines in the emirate rose 47.6 percent over the last twelve months
Lets not forget and end to many roadworks, the metro works, the new new airport is working, we have bendy buses and welcome realignment of rents and hotel rate and Dubai Wolrd and most of the banks have reported profit turnarounds this year.
So its been a turbulent year. On the IT front, new partnership models loom, Cloud computing and hosted software and rapid development tools and increasing use of social media and mobile systems, virtualisation , ever faster systems and lower cost memory, are all changing the way we do business. Nonetheless ourbusines which supports cleitns across the region in many industries is a good indicator of economic activity.
Since Ramadan Dubai seems to have come alive again and we are deluged with requests for demos and tenders as companies reopen suspended projects and consider next year’s budgets and what systems they need to stay competitive. Of course the real test is how many companies have the confidence and funds to invest in their future and place orders now – when that trend increases we will know Dubai has really turned the corner from survival to opportunity.
A cautionary quote from a comment by Paul King, an Arabian Business reader :
The “delay & pray” restructuring of debt just pushes today’s obligations forward a little more. It is important to remember that bad news and notices of default are like a five course meal. They arrive in stages. No financial institution or government possess the balance sheet strength to choke down all their bad loans at once. Most will take a few nibbles from their heaping plate of bad loans, pause a little to digest the losses, then start nibbling away again. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
